Honestly I haven’t been able to get a read on trump’s plans for Ukraine since he was inaugurated. I had assumed he was going to cut his losses but he’s remained on the course (with increased concessions, like the mineral deal). Trump also doesn’t play well when at a disadvantage, at least from what I’ve seen.

There’s also Europe and ukraine itself obviously. Europe has been pretty compliant on a lot of other issues, but Ukraine is a big red line for them. I doubt Europe would be able to supply ukraine on its own, but I wonder if a complete capitulation by Trump would create enough tension to break something. Also were the recent anti-corruption protests a fluke or do they hint at a possible wider discontent in the country that could spark into something larger, even after the conflict ends?

I would guess that Putin wouldn’t have accepted to come without gaining something, and I doubt PR would be the only thing.